Ohio GOP Efforts at Voter Suppression could help Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Ohio

            If the Trump campaign did not believe they could win Ohio, then Donald would not be spending so much time there. Ohio has been a critical state throughout this election and it will continue to be a state to watch as the election draws closer. In order for Trump to win, democratic voters would have to stay home and Trump would have to be able to pull the votes from Republicans that are on the fence. There have been times that Ohio voters thought the Democratic candidate would win by a landslide and in turn they don’t show up to vote. This election is different than virtually every other election before. Trump is losing in some historically Republican suburbs.

           

            The southwestern corner of the state of Ohio will be a good indicator of who will end up winning Ohio. This is a key area to watch on election night because there are many voters on the fence. This election is shaping up to be much close than it appeared it was going to be two weeks ago. The resurfacing of more emails and a new investigation is overshadowing the controversial comments from Trump last week. In turn the polls have Trump gaining momentum. Things are looking to be pretty tight in the upcoming week, with Election Day just around the corner, things are far from over.

http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/10/the_donald_trump_presidential.html

Gerrymandering in Ohio

With the state of Ohio back in play for Hilary Clinton and the Democrat after Republican Donald Trump's precipitous fall from the top of the polls, many in the Democratic party were hoping to see a gain in seats. Due to extreme gerrymandering, do not hold your breath Democrats.  Richard Gunther who is a professor emeritus at the Ohio State University says that the Buckeye State has a special place in politics, ranking third out of 50 states for worst examples of gerrymandering (Pennsylvania and Virginia are ranked ahead for the dubious distinction). A great stat that shows the ridiculous lines that have been drawn is that "While Republican congressmen received 52 percent of the vote in 2012, Gunther said, they received 75 percent of the seats in the state". Even with high turnout, Democrat voters have little chance of swaying elections already predetermined.

This sad trend is likely to play out across the country and it will only be magnified in the battleground state of Ohio. I find it really interesting that both John Kasich, the GOP governor, and the Republican Secretary of State want to see gerrymandering as a thing of the past. I think that a lack of competitive House races is partially a reason we see such polarized positions in the current political sphere. It will be interesting to see if there will finally be a push to end this practice that belongs in the annals of history.

Something to keep an eye on is if Clinton is able to drive high voter turnout in places like Cleveland and Columbus to win Ohio. If there seems to be a decisive Democratic victory for the presidential race in the state with little change to the House structure, will there be a more public outcry to change redistricting laws? It will also offer more proof for those trying to make that claim there is indeed still systematic racism with practices such as gerrymandering that reduce minority voter power.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/10/23/election-2016--ohio-incumbents-are-shoo-ins-thanks-to-district-maps.html

60 Minutes "Out of Touch" vs. "Far Detached"

            This week I decided to take a different angle at the upcoming presidential election. As I was siting in my living room after the Patriots vs. Steelers games, a 60 minutes special involving the looming election came on the air. The show was overall very unbiased; it showed and interviewed supporters from both sides.  The segment had the goal of figuring out which candidate is more out of touch with reality. The state of Ohio has picked the winner of every election since 1964, and no Republican has won an election without taking Ohio, and this is why Ohio is so influential at this time. The latest poll has Hilary and Trump in a dead heat coming into the final two weeks.

Interestingly they interviewed a couple that had different political views, the wife supported Hilary and the husband a Trump supporter. The husband was a steel worker who lost his job when the mill shut down; he believes that Donald Trump will bring back the jobs to the state of Ohio. In contrast his wife believes that Donald is nothing but talk and she believes that Hilary can bring back the jobs just the same. I found it interested that one of the men stated that Hilary was too far detached from what they are going through in Cleveland, he pointed out that Hilary was wearing clothes that cost more than what he would make in a full years work at the mill when he still had his job. All in all it was a very interesting clip that shows that many people support each candidate for many different reasons, and for right or for wrong, it will make for an interesting race in Ohio.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-ohio-voters-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

Trump Says He'll Accept Election Results On One Condition

Over the course of the last week or so Trump has been complaining that the election process is rigid against him; and this week he went s step further at the debate and said he will not accept the election results. Now, all of this is a side effect of him being down in the polls and Republicans fleeing his side; he can see the end is near. However, on Thursday at a Trump rally in Delaware Ohio, he took a step back saying he would accept the results on one condition. That condition being if we won; he'd only accept the results if he won.

Really, this news isn't directly anything really important or anything really mind blowing. It's importance comes from how this will affect the legislature races around the country. Everything that Trump is saying and doing is being watched under a microscope, and everything that is being observed is having a very large impact on a lot of those races around this country. All of a sudden Democrats are locking up seats and catching up in the polls in others. He is single handedly destroying the Republican party by dividing the base and sending independents packing. The best example of this is Texas, traditionally the largest Republican state, where he is currently only ahead by a handful of points in a state that Republicans usually win in by a number comfortably in the double digits. It's crazy to think that there is actually a small chance that Texas could vote Democrat this year; and that is something that could have effects one future elections for sure

Sources:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/20/politics/donald-trump-i-will-totally-accept-election-results-if-i-win/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

Big City Tax Issues Helping Hilary Clinton

           Ohio’s six largest cities have important tax issues on the ballot this election that could potentially gain Hilary Clinton a slight boost in votes. The big tax issues such as the ones being discussed are often crucial in getting people to the polls and historically the Democrats have always done well in the big cities in Ohio. If a decent percentage of the population in the large cities were not going to vote, then the race could appear closer than it actually should have been.

            In 2012 Obama won the state of Ohio by just over 150,000 votes, this is significant because in the five largest cities in Ohio Obama had 75% of the vote in comparison to Mitt Romney’s 23%. Many of the voters in large cities are facing an increase in income taxes, along with large tax increases for schools. In 2004 another large issue that was similar to this but in a different way, was the issue of gay marriage, which drew a large turnout in George Bush supporters.

            When I read this article I would think that this could potentially help Hilary. Democrats have always appealed to low-income household and the East side of cities such as Cleveland has a large percentage of people on public assistance. There is a real chance that if the voters come out to vote to try to shut down the tax increase they will vote for Hilary. Another angle on this topic is that low-income people would support the tax increase so the wealthy have a larger portion taken from them. Who know if this will affect the presidential election but it is definitely something to keep an eye on.

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2016/10/could_big-city_tax_issues_in_o.html#incart_river_index

Trump Severs Ties with Key Ohio GOP Offical

This past weekend saw Donald Trump's continued war against the establishment wing of the Republican Party move back to Ohio. The Republican presidential candidate has already sparred with the popular governor of Ohio, John Kasich, but a few days ago a new target emerged in the campaign's cross hairs. The campaign officially split ties with the state's GOP chairman, Matt Borges. Borges has been a close ally to Kasich throughout this election season and his prodding of Trump, especially after the sexual assault allegations, have caused relations to turn sour.

I find this especially interesting because along with Trump's own blunders from the past couple of weeks, this new battle with a fellow Republican in the state of Ohio puts the state back into contention. I do not think this development will impact Trump's appeal with white, working-class males in rural parts of the state as these voters are already fed up with the establishment from both political parties. The part of the state where this new feud will have the biggest disruption is in the suburban areas of Ohio's major cities. A significant portion of these voters have been hesitant to vote for Trump. In conjunction with the lewd claims by Trump, there is a chance that many of these hesitant voters either do not show up to the polls or write in a candidate of their choosing.

I do not believe that this specific feud will cause many Republicans to switch their allegiance to Hilary Clinton. But looking at this event in totality with Donald Trump's other transgressions, I think more Republican voters deciding to pass on Trump brings the state of Ohio back into play for Clinton and the Democrats.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-campaign-ohio-gop-chairman-matt-borges-229840

Obama Administration Going After Republican Congressman

With the new divide among the Republican Party caused by the release of the audio where Donald Trump describes what is essentially sexual assault, Democrats are going after more than Trump. The Democrats see this as an opportunity to go after both Senate and House seats, and they are using Donald Trump to do it.

Essentially, the Democrats want use this to give their party momentum and stun the momentum of the Republicans. They will most likely be running adds all across the country in an effort to attack the incumbent Republicans and be sending people to campaign in the key areas. In Ohio, the person doing the campaigning is currently President Obama. He isn't holding anything back, attacking those like the Republican Senator Rob Portman for standing by Trump only until now. He believes they aren't deserving of their seats in Congress because they sat by for the last year while Trump spewed out racist and sexist rhetoric and have only now abandoned him due to immense pressure. 

Now, I doubt this will do much in Ohio, it really looks like Senator Portman has this wrapped up, but this could help Clinton win in Ohio and this strategy could have immense effect around the country.

Source

http://www.ohio.com/news/politics/national/obama-campaigns-in-ohio-says-republicans-deserve-no-credit-for-disavowing-trump-1.719066?localLinksEnabled=false

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Leaves Strickland

Senate candidate for the Democratic Party, Ted Strickland has seen his funding been stripped away from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The national organization aids nominees across the country in Senate races they will be competitive.  Polls have shown Strickland down 17 point to incumbent Republican Rob Portman.

Why is this a big deal? I think this is representing the way Ohio is going to vote this presidential election. I cannot imagine a way that Hilary Clinton is able to win Ohio while at the same time having a Senate candidate and fellow Democrat be down 17 points. Although I do not think that Clinton will lose Ohio by that large of a number, I think Trump and the Republican ticket will be insurmountable.

However, the caveat with this article is it is from October 7th, the same Friday of Donald Trump's scandal involving explicit tapes with sexually-suggestive content. It will be interesting to see if the polls will show Republican voters who are now reluctant to vote for Trump, impacting down-ballot races due to low Republican turnout. If the Trump's flub causes Strickland to close the gap on Portman to a more manageable level, will the DSCC regret pulling funds?

http://www.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2016/10/10-07-16-strickland-dscc.html

Why Ohio is Leaving Donald Trump for Hilary Clinton

A little over a month ago, it looked to be clear that Ohio was going to go to Donald Trump, now it appears that Ohio is Hilary’s to lose. Trumps opening debate statements did not do him any favors, couple with the controversial tape from 2005 and the whole Miss Universe debacle, things are starting to slip away from Trump. The reason Ohio was favoring Donald is his pull on working class white men that typically vote democrat, in contrast the Democrats pushed there hardest to register voters that are minorities and that are young. With early voting beginning this Wednesday, Clinton boasts a 4 point lead of 46 to 42 over Donald.

            One big point that is killing Trump in Ohio, is that he has had the support of iron workers, until information about his purchase of steel from China. Many workers felt betrayed and felt that he can no longer be trusted. I found it interesting that 9 of 10 Trump voters polled were not waiver by the tape released in 2005. Though that is still a 10% lose in votes for Donald if the polls translate to the larger population. Many Trump supporters would not change there vote no matter what happened, whereas there are also many voters that are just on the fence and are still not sure, that is why this is such a sensitive time in the election process and why the Presidential debates are so influential.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-ohio-is-leaving-donald-trump-for-hillary-clinton/

Ohio Senator Backs Pence

The audio tape released that has Trump saying those vulgar words about women has left the Republican Party scrambling to decide what to do about him. Many are removing their official support for him, others are vowing to vote for Pence, and many are even demanding he drop out of the race. Of course, the big guy has no intention of dropping out of the race, and this is clearly going to only divide the party further. Many see this as the nail in his coffin; however, this makes things a lot trickier for the other Republicans running for office.

Take Ohio Senator Rob Portman, he is up for re-election and has been able to keep a stable lead over his competition, but there is no doubt this sort of thing could shake up that campaign. Now, I'm not saying this scandal is going to destroy his campaign, I believe he is pretty safe since since his average lead is over 12% and he acted very quickly by removing his support for Trump and backing Pence. This could shake things up around the country though, a politicians move one way or the other could send their voters packing. Not to mention, the growing divide among the party and the lack of moral could seriously effect voter turn out, and the same time the growing animosity towards Trump could improve vote turn out on the Democratic side.

Which ever way you look at this it's bad for Trump and it's bad for the Republican Party, and it's not likely that the debate tonigh is going to help anything.

Sources

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/oh/ohio_senate_portman_vs_strickland-5386.html

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/portman-says-hell-vote-for-pence-instead-of-trump-229393

Voter Distributions

The particular article that I chose for this week’s discussion is one that requires a lot of spatial analysis. Immediately when I found the website that came from the NY Times it was clear how much it was related to Geography and how it is critical to understanding the upcoming election. There is a series of maps using a various number of different techniques that convey different variables that contribute to the distribution of voting in Ohio.  A proportional symbol map was used to show how both Republicans and Democrats voted in respect to the candidates inside there own parties.

I really enjoyed reading about how college education and the population of an area are directly related to how an area votes. The counties were broken down and analyzed individually. I found it interesting that John Kasich is doing so well, to be honest I had not been hearing a lot about Kasich and up until seeing all these proportion maps I wasn’t aware he was doing so well. The areas that favored Barrack Obama in the 2008 election tended to side similarly with Clinton. In high population centers such as Cleveland and Columbus the vote clearly went Democratic, as we know areas of high poverty tend to go to the Democrats. This site was very informative and with just a little critical thinking they were very helpful in understanding how and why the voting is the way it is in Ohio.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/ohio