Trump in Western Ohio

Western Ohio has been a Republican stronghold for some time and at least 60% of voters have put their support behind a Republican in every presidential election since 1976. Some Republicans were in the Never Trump crowd, instead backing Ohioan favorite son John Kasich. But with the idea of another Democrat in office coming close to fruition, many are backing away from their prior hesitancy. There is a palpable sense of anger in a lot of theses communities at politicians from both sides of the aisle.  Still, there are few holdouts, especially women, who cannot imagine voting for Trump.

I really liked this article because my mom's family is from this area and I was just visiting this part of the state this summer. My brother and I drove through these parts of Ohio to visit some relatives and you can see the lack of industry in a lot of these areas. There were quite a few shut-down granaries and factories that we saw as we traversed the landscape. I think a lot of times its easy for us as young, educated minds to immediately dismiss Trump and his policies as bigoted or far-fetched. But in a lot of these communities, the free trade has left them by the wayside and government promises from a twisted political systems have scorned a large voting demographic. Now, it's no question that Donald Trump will win this area, but the only question that remains is by how much?

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/09/26/will-gop-laden-western-ohio-go-for-donald-trump-looks-like-it.html#

Will Ohio be as Crucial as other Years?

I chose the article that I did because it offered a series of opinions of the debate from various news sites around the country. The debate last night will surely have an impact on the upcoming polls. The article that I selected offered many links to other sites that provided a good overview of the debate, though some tend to be biased, making it essential to read many of them to get a real feel for how it went for both candidates.

            Ohio is a must win for Donald Trump if he wants to have a real chance at winning the election, while Hilary Clinton has other ways of winning the election without Ohio. The most recent poll had Trump pulling slightly ahead in Ohio, though Bill Clinton is still campaigning for Hilary in Ohio, which may lead to a possible swing. At this point Trump has a 4 point lead, which as we know could change in just a few days. In 15 days early voting opens in Ohio, which will surely give us a better idea of who will win the highly controversial battleground state. 

            It has been six days since Trump last visited Ohio, while it has been 22 for Hilary. Many people believe this is because she is pulling out of Ohio and focusing on other key states. Clinton has been spending a lot of time in Pennsylvania and North Carolina rather than Ohio. Ohio voters have long been very key to winning the election and we should continue to watch how things unfold. With two key debates yet to come things could still change drastically.

           

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/09/recapping_the_first_faceoff_be.html#incart_river_index

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/09/actors_politicians_campaign_in.html

Ohio Scrambling to Re-Register Voters

It's pretty common these days for Republican lead state governments to be accused of or found guilty of wrongfully making it difficult for people to vote. Most of it centers around voter fraud and these governments passing legislation to mandate some form of voter I.D. For the most part however, voter fraud is such a small problem most don't even consider it a problem. At the same time these laws tend to simply make it harder or even impossible for people to vote; specifically people of lower income and other groups that tend to not vote Republican. As a result, many of these laws are brought to the courts and ruled unconstitutional. Ohio has found themselves in a similar spot.

There is one key difference here though, because Ohio has not gotten into trouble for anything to do with voter I.D.'s, they have gotten into trouble for taking registered voters off of their registered voters list. In a single Democrat leaning county for instance, 40,000 registered voters were taken off the list. This is due to the nature of the law, which takes people of the list for not voting. They authors of  the law claim the law is to take people off the list who have moved out of the state or have died, which it does do, but it also simply takes people off who just didn't vote recently. If you ask me, it is very clever, as Democratic voter turn out is not as strong on voting days that don't involve a president. However, it does blatantly go against federal law on taking voters off registration lists and clearly has the potential to take any number of thousands of registered voters off the list for no good reason.

Now, with the election only a few weeks away and the early voting process already underway, the U.S. Circuit Court has sent it to the lower state courts to figure out how to resolve this issue in time for voters in Ohio to register again if they have been wrongfully taken off the list. However, there's no telling if the creators of this bill are going to let it die or keep fighting for it.

Source
http://www.ohio.com/news/politics/state/appeals-court-ohio-elections-chief-wrongly-purged-voters-1.714017?localLinksEnabled=false&cache=18961415304345%25252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252fnews%25252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252fohio%25252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252fcss%25252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252fresults%252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525%252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252527+and+1%2525252525252525252525252525252525252525252525252

Kasich vs. the GOP

The GOP's current state is somewhere between who can shout the loudest and an outright civil war. The party is teetering on the brink and one prominent Republican is pushing the party's wagon closer to the cliff. John Kasich, the Republican governor of Ohio, who ran and subsequently lost the 2016 Republican presidential bid has entered a war of words with Reince Priebus. Mr. Priebus as the chair of the GOP has the difficult job of trying to unify a party behind the divisive Donald Trump. Kasich has refused to endorse Trump and the snub has angered those among the party elites. Kasich's snub of Trump was especially shocking as the Republican Convention took place in Cleveland, Ohio this past summer.

I find this article to be so interesting because it deals with two important repercussions from this current presidential race: down-ballot races and the 2020 election. Kasich argues that he is saving the GOP from a massacre in the elections by campaigning across the country for House and Senate Republicans who are in vulnerable positions due to intense backlash from Trump's emergence. I wonder if the governor will be able to save senators like Rob Portman (R) of Ohio who are facing competitive races. Has Kasich's absence from the convention and refusal to back Trump pushed the important swing-state of Ohio in the direction of Clinton's favor?

With so much in play for the 2016 race, 2020 seems quite distant. But there are GOP members who are contemplating punishing Kasich for his refusal to back the current Republican nominee. If Trump ends up losing Ohio, and especially the election, will Kasich be prevented from running for President in the future due to punitive measures put in place by party leaders? What if Donald Trump loses the election and those Republicans who are in crucial down-ballot races still wind up winning their respective re-election bids? Will Kasich be rewarded for saving the party?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/kasich-priebus-trump-228343

Ohio "The Battleground State"

Ohio is one of the few states that will play a large role in deciding who the next president of the United States is. Every fours years, Ohio becomes considered the most important swing state, though other states such as Florida and Pennsylvania have more electoral votes they do tend to lean more republican or democrat. Whereas Ohio is a state that seems to go either way on a regular basis and oddly enough nearly always goes with the winner. An interesting saying that I found was that "As history shows, as Ohio goes, so goes the nation." That is really the sole reason why there is so much focus on Ohio.

In the latest updated poll Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton are tied at 42% a piece, this comes from a poll of select registered voters in thirteen of the most controversial states, Ohio included. This election is one that I look forward to seeing how it unfolds, the debates are sure to be something that we have never seen before and truth be told it will probably end up as more of a reality TV show. The most current poll shows Trump with a 46% to 41% lead over Hilary in Ohio, I have learned from past elections to just take the polls with a grain of salt due to the variation that they show week to week. Though what we will find is that the numbers are going to drastically change during and after the debates. Trump has a tendency to say things that he should not, his extremist right wing views are a little much for even the most die hard Republicans. On the other hand the controversial topics regarding Hilary involving the deleted emails and now the possible health issues leaves some Democratic voters hanging on the fence as well. Many people have made up there minds, just as a large majority have not, the rest of the time leading up to election day will be eventful to say the least.

Sources
http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/09/clinton_trump_tied_across_batt.html#incart_river_index
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/politics/cnn-orc-poll-florida-ohio-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

Ohio Presidential Poll and Why Things Changed

Recent polls in Ohio show a very different story of the presidential race than they did a month ago. The most recent CNN/ORC poll of likely voters now has Trump ahead of Clinton by 5%, Trump with 46% and Clinton with 41%, and has Johnson and Stein far behind at 8% and 2% respectively. In mid August, it looked like Clinton was pulling away as the Democratic Convention had displayed passion and a vision for the future, while the Republican Convention fell short in its effort to enliven its base, but that has seem to worn off. 

Over the past few weeks, the attention has shifted away from the conventions and the messages the parties both tried to convey, and have focused on the obscure. Most recently that has been health issues. As Trump acted like the true reality TV star that he is, appearing on the Dr. Oz show; the controversial doctor made famous by Oprah. Here he used the after school television slot to let all the housewives and children eating snacks know that he is in good health. In the mean time, Hillary was succumbing to the symptoms on pneumonia, taking her off the campaign trail and allowing people to question her health. All in all, the several weeks or so were just more chapters in the presidential election that refuses to talk about real issues.

However, that may be coming to an end, as the first presidential debate is scheduled for a week from Monday. This will be the our chance to see what the two major candidates have to say about something that actually matters. Of course, things will get out of hand I'm sure, and they will go off topic, but maybe, just maybe some real discussion will occur, and we can finally see a consistent front runner emerge. My gut tells me that the debates will heavily favor Hillary, but I didn't think Donald would make it through the spring, yet here we are...

Sources:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/politics/cnn-orc-poll-florida-ohio-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/ohiopoll.pdf