Friday, September 16, 2016

Ohio Presidential Poll and Why Things Changed

Recent polls in Ohio show a very different story of the presidential race than they did a month ago. The most recent CNN/ORC poll of likely voters now has Trump ahead of Clinton by 5%, Trump with 46% and Clinton with 41%, and has Johnson and Stein far behind at 8% and 2% respectively. In mid August, it looked like Clinton was pulling away as the Democratic Convention had displayed passion and a vision for the future, while the Republican Convention fell short in its effort to enliven its base, but that has seem to worn off. 

Over the past few weeks, the attention has shifted away from the conventions and the messages the parties both tried to convey, and have focused on the obscure. Most recently that has been health issues. As Trump acted like the true reality TV star that he is, appearing on the Dr. Oz show; the controversial doctor made famous by Oprah. Here he used the after school television slot to let all the housewives and children eating snacks know that he is in good health. In the mean time, Hillary was succumbing to the symptoms on pneumonia, taking her off the campaign trail and allowing people to question her health. All in all, the several weeks or so were just more chapters in the presidential election that refuses to talk about real issues.

However, that may be coming to an end, as the first presidential debate is scheduled for a week from Monday. This will be the our chance to see what the two major candidates have to say about something that actually matters. Of course, things will get out of hand I'm sure, and they will go off topic, but maybe, just maybe some real discussion will occur, and we can finally see a consistent front runner emerge. My gut tells me that the debates will heavily favor Hillary, but I didn't think Donald would make it through the spring, yet here we are...

Sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/14/politics/cnn-orc-poll-florida-ohio-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/ohiopoll.pdf

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